Trump Says Iran Has Agreed to ‘Just About Everything,
The president told CNBC that a nuclear and maritime deal is nearly complete. Meanwhile, Iran is still mourning its supreme leader, dealing with internal Kurdish conflict, and has not settled who will collect tolls for ships crossing Hormuz.
Many people have called the recent events a breakthrough, a view President Trump has encouraged. In an interview with Joe Kernen on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Trump said, “I think they’ve agreed to just about everything we need.” His comment briefly affected oil markets. Still, it did not settle the ongoing disputes that have kept the conflict going for four months, or address Iran’s mourning for its supreme leader, who was killed in a U.S. strike.
This contrast is important. In Washington, the president is on TV, pointing to crude oil at $68 a barrel and the Dow nearing 53,000 as signs the market supports him. In Tehran, officials are holding what they expect to be the largest state funeral in Iran’s history, with six days of mourning for Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, killed with senior military officials in the February 28 strikes that started Operation Epic Fury.
His son Mojtaba, the new leader, has not appeared in public since taking the role. Talks are officially on hold until the funeral ends on July 9. So, while a deal is said to be nearly done, Iran is currently led by someone who has not yet stepped forward.
This pattern has repeated throughout the negotiations. Since May, Trump has announced an imminent breakthrough at least four times, but each time the actual agreement has become less substantial when examined closely.
On May 24, there was talk of a memorandum of understanding. On June 15, an agreement was reached: a 60-day ceasefire that reopened the Strait of Hormuz to toll-free traffic and offered a $ 300 billion reconstruction fund.
On June 29, Trump told reporters in Qatar that talks were “going well.”
On July 2, he made similar comments to Kernen.
Each announcement affected the markets, but none resolved the main issues: who will control Iran’s enriched uranium, whether Tehran will keep any enrichment capability, who will enforce security in the strait after the 60 days, and whether Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps supports any of these terms.
That last issue is more important than the CNBC interview suggests. While Trump was recording Thursday’s interview, Iran’s military operations command sent a message on state channels warning that the strait “will be closed to vessel traffic” if the U.S. or its allies break the ceasefire.
In reality, traffic continued as usual, which is common when Tehran makes such threats, as Sobenshu has reported before. The real story is this contradiction: the same week Trump tells CNBC that Iran has given in, Iran’s military tells its people the opposite.
Trump’s other statements to Kernen should be viewed the same way: they are repeated, not independently verified, and mostly show how he wants the situation to appear. He claimed that American strikes left Iran without a navy, air force, or working radar, and that the country is now on its third generation of “dead” leaders.
He also said he is not seeking regime change, even though he described that outcome right after. Trump mentioned a reconstruction plan where American farmers would sell corn, wheat, and soybeans to Iran, paid for with frozen and seized Iranian assets. Tehran has not confirmed any of this. All of these ideas are for what might happen after a deal that does not yet exist.
At the same time, events that do not match the idea of a breakthrough continue. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard reported killing five members of a Kurdish opposition group in the northwest, while the group said six of its fighters died in what it called an ambush. Iran’s foreign minister spent Thursday criticizing CENTCOM’s presence in the region on social media instead of supporting diplomacy. Turkey’s foreign minister called Israel “a problem for the whole world” on live TV, leading Israeli officials to accuse him of inciting genocide, and Turkey cut $10 billion in trade with Israel overnight. These are not just background events. They show the real situation in a region that Trump describes on cable news as basically resolved.
Wall Street analysts are also skeptical. Goldman Sachs still expects Brent crude to be around $80 a barrel by the fourth quarter, much higher than the numbers Trump mentioned on Thursday. The bank has also raised its inflation forecast because much of this year’s price relief has already been factored in and then reversed. In a worst-case scenario, where the strait handover fails or Gulf production remains low, Goldman predicts prices could reach $115. This does not look like a resolved conflict. Instead, it reflects traders who have seen the president announce a deal four times and are preparing for a fifth.
This does not mean a deal will not happen. The framework signed in Geneva in June is real; the strahas it has reopened, and the economic incentives—sanctions relief, the release of frozen assets, and the construction fund—are strong reasons for both governments to want a final agreement. Still, the phrase “just about everything we need” is meant for television, not for official negotiations. The real test is not what Trump says to Joe Kernen, but whether Iran’s next supreme leader, whoever that is after the six days of mourning, actually signs an agreement.
Update, 4:12 p.m. ET: Qatari and Pakistani mediators said Thursday that the next formal round of talks will not resume until after Khamenei’s funeral ends on July 9. This means the “breakthrough” Trump described is on hold during the same 24-hour period he announced it.
